Tropical Depression Update

Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1

Issued at 5:00 AM, 11 November 2024

Valid until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today

A low-pressure area located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) has intensified into a Tropical Depression.

Location and Intensity:

- As of 4:00 AM: The center of the Tropical Depression is located approximately 1,620 km East of Eastern Visayas (outside PAR) at coordinates 11.4°N, 140.6°E.

- Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 km/h near the center, with gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

- Central Pressure: 1006 hPa.

Current Movement:

- The Tropical Depression is moving west northwestward at a speed of 35 km/h.

- Strong winds extend up to 190 km from the center.

Forecast Outlook:

- The Tropical Depression is expected to continue its west-northwestward track and may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by tomorrow morning (12 November) as Tropical Cyclone OFEL. It will remain over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon.

- Possible Landfall: The storm could make landfall over Northern or Central Luzon by Thursday evening (14 November) or early Friday morning (15 November).

- Hazards: Areas outside the projected landfall zone or forecast cone may still experience hazards, including strong winds and rough coastal waters. The storm's track may shift in the coming days, particularly by the 4th and 5th day of the forecast.

Intensification:

- The Tropical Depression is likely to intensify into a severe tropical storm within 48 hours and could peak in intensity just before landfall. While it is expected to remain below typhoon strength, the possibility of it reaching this category cannot be ruled out.

Advisory:

Local authorities and disaster risk management offices are urged to closely monitor updates on this developing tropical cyclone.

Photo Illustration from zoomearth.com